Notebook said:
Here's todays....
The game is $15-$30. You are in the small blind with A-Q. The under-the-gun player raises. A middle player calls and you call. There is $105 in the pot and three players. The flop comes: A-K-9, giving you top pair, top kicker and a backdoor flush-draw. You bet. Both opponents call. There is $150 in the pot. The turn is the 7. You bet. The under-the-gun player calls. The middle player raises. What do you do?
I fold. You can read the rest but it comes down to what the UTG could have raised with and what the other guy could have cold-called with. This flop hit someone besides me and the turn is a deadly trap. I would expect the UTG to reraise regardless of what I do here and my pair of aces are probably beaten badly. There is no chance of nursing a cheap showdown. I wrote this paragraph after confusing myself thoroughly by writing the rest. Feel free to tell me just how screwed up I am.
First, I don't have TPTK, I have TP2K (and I'm WAY behind AK). I need more info. Is the flush draw still live after the 7? And do I have the nut flush draw? Assuming the flush draw is dead it comes down to whether I figure that the turn raiser would have called a preflop raise cold with a pair of sevens or Ax. Is he's that big of an idiot? Let's say he is. At this moment I have to call $30 into a $210 pot, so if I'm behind a set I obviously don't have the odds, even if UTG overcalls.
If he had AA, KK, or AK he would have raised preflop. Even if he didn't reraise (or if he held 99), he would not be taking a chance at ending the hand now with a raise holding a giant set. I think he's raising with A7 or A9. Against A7 I have 3 outs to a win (the Qs) and 6 outs to a tie (The Ks & 9s). Against A9 I have 3 to win and 3 to tie. If I figure a 50% chance at each of those I estimate 7.5 outs with 1 card to come. Thats about exactly the odds I need except that in 2/3 of the cases I'm playing for a tie. Against 2 pair it's a close fold for me.
Since I have a 2-outer against any set (and this hand looks like I'm up against a set, probably the UTG player) I have an easy fold. I probably have 1 out since the UTG may have had an A.
And its a perfect example of why calling a raise preflop with AQ is normally a bad idea. You can really lose a lot with AQ out of position. Players complete from the small blind all the time thinking that they've already paid so they're getting some kind of discount to see the flop.